Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Current price
5.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.5%
$514.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market covers any military offensive intended to establish control over any inhabited territory administered by Taiwan, which includes outlying inhabited islands like Kinmen or Matsu, but explicitly excludes uninhabited islands. Determining whether a military action constitutes an offensive with the specific intent to establish territorial control (versus a blockade, bombardment, or minor skirmish) introduces interpretive leeway. Resolution relies on statements from multiple potential official entities—including China, Taiwan, the UN, or any permanent UN Security Council member—or alternatively on a consensus of credible reporting without a specific hierarchy, giving the resolving party broad latitude to evaluate mixed news reports.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether China will initiate a military offensive to gain control of territory administered by Taiwan by June 30, 2027. Notably, actions against inhabited islands qualify, but offensives targeting only uninhabited islands do not.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying territory includes any inhabited islands administered by the Republic of China, whereas uninhabited islands do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such offensive occurs by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for China to commence a qualifying military offensive (11:59 PM ET).
Resolution source
Official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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