Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Current price
1.5¢
−0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.5%
$1.3M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market defines resolution around formal Article 13 notification rather than completed exit, meaning an official notice of denunciation triggers a positive outcome even if legal challenges or injunctions immediately freeze the process. Leaving NATO's integrated military command structure is explicitly excluded. The primary resolution relies on official U.S. government and NATO statements, with credible reporting permitted as an alternative source. Participants should be aware that the trigger is the formal submission of notice before the deadline, not the eventual completion of the treaty's one-year withdrawal period.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States formally begins withdrawing from NATO or submits an official notice of denunciation under Article 13 before 2027. Resolution to Yes requires only initiating the formal withdrawal process, even if the action is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Any qualifying action triggers a Yes outcome regardless of whether implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other challenges. Leaving NATO's integrated military command structure does not count for a Yes resolution. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official information from the US government and NATO, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Withdrawal deadline: — The US must formally initiate withdrawal or provide notice of denunciation by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the US government and NATO, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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