Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Current price
2.55¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.55%
$1.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market defines an invasion clearly as the commencement of a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Greenland's recognized land territory before the end of 2026. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single designated official body or government declaration, requiring deciders to evaluate news coverage if an ambiguous military deployment or incident occurs. The deadline and geographical scope are precisely specified.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States launches a military offensive to gain control over any portion of Greenland's land territory by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying land territory includes all area recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark as of market creation. The market resolves to No if no such military offensive occurs by the deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — A qualifying military offensive must commence by 11:59 PM ET on this date for a Yes resolution.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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