Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
2 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31 at 25% · first close Nov 1, 2026 · $387.5K total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Israeli Airspace (The Tel Aviv Flight Information Region / LLLL) will undergo a qualifying closure by specific target dates in 2026, excluding closures for holidays, regular cadences, weather, or technical malfunctions.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of multiple date-based milestone markets measuring the same condition over cumulative timeframes. If a qualifying closure occurs before the earlier deadline (October 31, 2026), both the October 31 and December 31 markets will resolve Yes; thus, more than one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if a qualifying closure occurs between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. A qualifying closure requires an official NOTAM or order from the responsible authority that generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation transiting, arriving in, and departing from the region. A market resolves to No if no qualifying closure takes effect by the deadline. Excluded are closures caused by weather, holidays/religious observances, pre-announced or regular-cadence events, technical system failures, nationality-specific bans, partial sector/altitude closures, ground stops, or actions by unauthorized parties.
Key dates
- October 31, 2026 cutoff: — 11:59 PM ET deadline for the October 31 market
- December 31, 2026 cutoff: — 11:59 PM ET deadline for the December 31 market
Resolution source
Official information from the Israeli government, including the Ministry of Transport, the Civil Aviation Authority, and the Israel Airports Authority, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 25% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| October 31 | 8% | ▼ 3 | Med | High |