EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)14%±0≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)13%±0Dilution of Iran's Uranium13%▲ 1Enriched Uranium Surrender11%▲ 6
Change in points, 24hView event →
Geopolitics markets
58 live Polymarket markets in 35 events- LowGotcha
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver60¢+10.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 49.5–66.5¢ - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →March 31 · 7 daysRange 57–68% - EVENT · 15 OUTCOMES
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro73%▲ 1Delcy Rodríguez17%▼ 5No Head of State2%±0Jorge Rodríguez<1%±0Edmundo González<1%±0+10 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 14–18% - LowGotcha
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver24.5¢−5¢ 7d7 daysRange 22.5–32.5¢ - LowGotcha
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver8¢−1.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 6–9.5¢ - LowGotcha
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMExceptions11.5¢−5¢ 7d7 daysRange 10.5–16.5¢ - EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
Change in points, 24hView event → - LowGotcha
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks60.5¢−3.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 58.5–64.5¢ - LowGotcha
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks2.55¢+1.7¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.45–2.55¢ - LowGotcha
Macron out by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver3.85¢−0.3¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.1–6.25¢ - LowGotcha
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver3.85¢−3.15¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.8–7.5¢ - LowGotcha
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver6.2¢+0.55¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.35–6.35¢ - LowGotcha
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver1.3¢−0.7¢ 7d7 daysRange 1–3.85¢ - LowGotcha
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver31.5¢+2¢ 7d7 daysRange 27.5–33.5¢ - LowGotcha
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver95.65¢−0.35¢ 7d7 daysRange 95.25–96.5¢ - LowGotcha
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver4.95¢±0¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.65–5.3¢ - LowGotcha
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks59¢−0.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 52.5–61¢ - LowGotcha
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions3.55¢−0.85¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.1–5.3¢ - LowGotcha
US military draft authorized in 2026?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks4¢+0.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.5–4.1¢ - LowGotcha
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks8.5¢±0¢ since Oct 14Since Oct 14Flat at 8.5¢ - LowGotcha
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver2.3¢−0.25¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.95–2.7¢ - LowGotcha
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver2.65¢+0.2¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.45–2.65¢ - LowGotcha
Will Alberta join the US?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver1.8¢+0.65¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.05–3.6¢ - LowGotcha
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver4.5¢±0¢ 7d7 daysFlat at 4.5¢ - LowGotcha
NATO dissolves before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions1.3¢−0.15¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.2–1.45¢ - LowGotcha
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions2.8¢−0.25¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.65–4.2¢ - LowGotcha
Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver1.9¢+0.05¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.85–2.2¢ - LowGotcha
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver4.55¢+1.1¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.45–5.8¢ - LowGotcha
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver5.6¢±0¢ 7d7 daysRange 5.55–5.6¢ - LowGotcha
Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver3.35¢±0¢ 7d7 daysFlat at 3.35¢ - LowGotcha
NATO article 5 before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions4.65¢−0.75¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.55–5.45¢ - LowGotcha
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver5.5¢+0.65¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.75–5.95¢ - LowGotcha
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks1.45¢−0.05¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.4–1.5¢