Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?
Current price
60.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 60.5%
$6.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise geographic coordinates and visual references for the specified building. Resolution relies primarily on a named public mapping tool from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and explicitly designates which map layers qualify (Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain or Assessed Russian Advances) versus those that do not (such as Infiltration Areas). A clear persistence rule requires the shading to remain across a full update cycle, and an early-trigger rule ensures that once captured, subsequent loss of control does not revert the outcome. Discretion is minimal, with fallback sources clearly ranked only if the primary map becomes unavailable.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia captures the Royal Café Alex building in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by March 31, 2027, based primarily on mapping data from the Institute for the Study of War.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any part of the specified building's grey area is shaded under 'Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain' or 'Assessed Russian Advances' on the ISW map before the deadline, and that shading persists through the next full ISW daily update cycle. It also resolves to Yes if Russia establishes actual control of the territory via a negotiated settlement, though de jure announcements alone do not qualify. Once met, subsequent loss of control is disregarded. Shading under 'Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas' or 'Claimed Russian Territory' does not qualify. The market resolves to No otherwise. The primary source is the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap as a secondary backup and credible reporting consensus as a tertiary fallback.
Key dates
- End date: — Market deadline at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
ISW Ukraine map
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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