NATO article 5 before 2027?
Current price
4.65¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.65%
$298.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The event being tracked is a formal, high-profile diplomatic action that produces definitive public documentation. Official information from NATO's website serves as the primary benchmark, with broad media reporting serving as a secondary check if needed. Holders should note that the rules specify an explicit eligibility window beginning November 5, 2025 and ending December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, meaning any invocation prior to that start date would technically fall outside the designated window despite the broader title phrasing.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market tracks whether any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty within a specific timeframe concluding before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if Article 5 is not invoked within this timeframe. Resolution is determined primarily by official information from NATO, though a consensus of credible media reporting will also suffice.
Key dates
- Start Date: — Beginning of the evaluation window.
- End Date: — Conclusion of the evaluation window at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from NATO (nato.int) or a consensus of credible media
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