Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?
Current price
6.5¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.5%
$56K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what qualifies as a ceasefire agreement, explicitly requiring a mutual, general pause in direct military engagement rather than a localized, category-specific, or unilateral pause. Agreements reached before the deadline will count even if their effective start date falls after the deadline, provided they contain an explicit commitment to stop fighting. Resolution relies either on official government announcements from Russia and Ukraine or on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves some latitude to the market decider if official statements conflict or are ambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach an official, mutually agreed general ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia and Ukraine reach a mutually agreed general suspension of direct military engagement by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying pacts include peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses with an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting across the general conflict, and qualify even if the effective start date is after the deadline. Agreements limited to specific locations, target categories, future negotiations, informal understandings, or unilateral pauses do not count. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying agreement is reached by the deadline. Official government statements from Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting determine resolution.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Ceasefire agreement must be reached by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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