Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
Current price
1.45¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.45%
$1.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly specify that Ukraine must officially become a full member state by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET to resolve affirmatively, exactly reflecting the question timeframe. The designated primary resolution source is NATO's official member countries list, an unambiguous record of formal accession. The fallback allowance for other credible reporting introduces minimal risk given the public and formal legal nature of international treaty accession.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ukraine officially becomes a full member state of NATO before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ukraine officially joins NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if Ukraine has not officially joined NATO as a full member state by that time. The outcome will be determined primarily based on information from the official NATO website, though other credible sources may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Cutoff time for Ukraine to officially join NATO as a full member state
Resolution source
Official NATO website, though other credible sources may be used
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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