Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
Current price
1.9¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.9%
$80.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The criteria for legal recognition are well-defined, requiring full legal parity with opposite-sex marriage and explicitly excluding civil unions, domestic partnerships, and the recognition of foreign marriages. The deadline is exact, and any qualifying policy must be actively in force by that time. The primary risk stems from the resolution mechanism, which relies on establishing a consensus among credible reporting rather than citing an official Iranian government registry or legal gazette, leaving the interpretation of news reports to the resolver.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law. Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline. The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify. Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran will legally recognize same-sex marriage with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriage anywhere within the country by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the government of Iran legally recognizes same-sex marriage anywhere within Iran through a law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision in force by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The legal framework must allow same-sex couples to marry within Iran under civil or religious authorities with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages. Civil unions, domestic partnerships, or limited recognition short of marriage do not qualify, nor does recognizing foreign marriages without allowing them domestically. The market resolves to No if these requirements are not met by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Recognition must be in force by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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