UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
Current price
4.55¢
−0.45¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.55%
$121.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly establish that resolution to affirmative requires a formal announcement by either the UAE or Saudi Arabia stating that diplomatic relations have been suspended. The deadline is explicitly fixed to December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Official government announcements are prioritized as the primary evidence, with a consensus of credible reporting permitted as a backup. Holders should primarily ensure that any reported diplomatic rupture involves an explicit formal suspension of relations rather than minor diplomatic disputes, partial downgrades, or temporary ambassador recalls.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Saudi Arabia formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from either respective government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether either the United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia formally announces the suspension of diplomatic relations with the other before the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if either the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Saudi Arabia formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. The market resolves to No if no such announcement occurs by the specified deadline. Official information from either government serves as the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time
Resolution source
Official information from either respective government or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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