Will Cuba recognize Israel by December 31?
Current price
3.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.35%
$16K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are straightforward, requiring Cuba to formally recognize Israel as a state by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The rules clearly distinguish formal diplomatic recognition from mere statements of intention. While the title does not specify the year, the text provides a specific end date and timezone. Resolution relies primarily on official government announcements, though the decider may also consult a consensus of credible reporting if needed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Cuba officially recognizes Israel as a state by December 31, 2026. Resolution requires formal recognition rather than merely an announcement of intentions.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Cuba officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Only formal recognition by the government counts; an announcement of intentions does not suffice. The market resolves to No if formal recognition does not occur by the deadline. Resolution decisions are based primarily on official government information, with a consensus of credible reporting also used.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves based on whether formal recognition occurs by this time.
Resolution source
Official government information, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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