Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Current price
2.85¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.85%
$10.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify what constitutes an acquisition, detailing formal sovereignty transfers, exclusive jurisdiction arrangements, and force, while explicitly excluding standard basing agreements, leases, MOUs, and pre-existing control. Notably, an agreement signed or enacted before the December 31, 2026 deadline qualifies the market for a positive resolution even if the actual transfer or effective date occurs after the deadline. Official government announcements from the United States, Denmark, and Greenland serve as the primary resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting available as a secondary reference.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies. 1. Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 2. Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territory, such that the ordinary legal authority of Denmark and Greenland do not apply,except by U.S. permission. Such agreements or instruments will qualify even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 3. Use of Force: If the U.S. acquires primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over a defined area of Greenland through force, this will also qualify. An announcement will qualify only if it is accompanied by or consists of a binding agreement or legal instrument (e.g., enacted legislation, a signed treaty, the signed text of an agreement, or an executive action implementing such an agreement) that unambiguously creates a transfer of sovereignty, or primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control, even if this transfer or acquisition takes effect after the market deadline. Non-binding statements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or MOUs will not alone qualify. Basing rights, access agreements, SOFA-type arrangements, COFA-type arrangements, commercial concessions, or other permissions to use land (including leases) will not alone qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction or control in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying control. Examples of qualifying events include but are not limited to treaty or piece of legislation that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession, even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States, Denmark, and Greenland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States acquires sovereignty, primary jurisdiction, or exclusive control over any land territory in Greenland by the end of 2026. A binding legal agreement signed before the deadline qualifies even if the physical handover or effective date takes place later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States acquires control of any land territory in Greenland by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying acquisitions include formal transfers of sovereignty, binding agreements granting primary or exclusive jurisdiction where ordinary Danish and Greenlandic authority ceases to apply without US permission, or control gained through force. A signed, binding legal instrument counts even if its effective date is after the deadline. Basing rights, SOFA or COFA arrangements, standard leases, commercial concessions, non-binding agreements, and pre-existing control do not qualify. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. Official information from the governments of the United States, Denmark, and Greenland, or a consensus of credible reporting, determines the outcome.
Key dates
- Acquisition deadline: — The US must acquire qualifying territory or enter a binding agreement by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of the United States, Denmark, and Greenland, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.