NATO dissolves before 2027?
Current price
1.3¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.3%
$125.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly specify what constitutes dissolution: more than half of member states withdrawing, an official unanimous agreement to nullify the treaty, or legal cessation. Notably, the rules state that a member state counts as having withdrawn as soon as it officially submits a notice of denunciation under Article 13, without needing to wait for the mandatory one-year notice period to complete before the deadline. While the decider may fall back on a consensus of credible reporting if needed, primary resolution relies on official communications from NATO and its member governments.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty. 3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves before 2027, based on specific conditions for dissolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. NATO is considered dissolved if more than half of its member states (as of market creation) withdraw. A member state is considered to have withdrawn upon officially initiating withdrawal or providing official notice of denunciation, regardless of finalization date. NATO is also considered dissolved if all member states adopt an official treaty or agreement to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty. Finally, NATO is considered dissolved if it otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. The market resolves No if NATO does not dissolve by the specified date. The resolution relies on official information from NATO and its member states, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
official information from NATO and NATO member states
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