UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
Current price
5.6¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.6%
$355.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market establishes clear criteria, resolving to Yes if either government formally announces the suspension of diplomatic relations before the specified deadline at the end of 2026. Official government announcements serve as the primary reference, though the rules permit relying on a consensus of credible media reporting as a secondary source, introducing slight discretion when interpreting diplomatic statements or temporary recalls of envoys. Aside from this minor discretion, the timeline and resolution criteria are straightforward.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Qatar formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from either respective government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United Arab Emirates or Qatar formally announces the suspension of bilateral diplomatic relations before the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if either the United Arab Emirates or Qatar formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. The market resolves to No if no such formal announcement occurs by this deadline. Resolution will be determined by official information from either government, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time
Resolution source
Official information from either respective government or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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