Will Alberta join the US?
Current price
1.35¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.35%
$2.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify what constitutes joining the United States by requiring the formal transfer or binding announcement of sovereignty over a majority of Alberta's territory. Clear standards are set regarding what qualifies as an announcement, requiring formal agreements such as ratified treaties or signed legislation rather than mere political talk or social media posts. The resolution date is explicitly fixed to December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. While official government sources are the primary deciders, the rules allow for a consensus of credible reporting as a secondary source, which introduces a minor amount of decider judgment.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Canadian province of Alberta will officially come under United States sovereignty or have an official bilateral announcement confirming a future transfer of sovereignty by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, or if the United States and Canada officially announce that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Sovereignty requires the formal transfer of the majority of Alberta's territory as of February 6, 2026, into US governance or jurisdiction as a state, territory, or other classification. Qualifying announcements require official agreements or actions such as ratified treaties or signed legislation; mere suggestions, negotiations, or social media posts do not count. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met by the deadline. Resolution is based on official government information from the US, Canada, and Alberta, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Territory baseline date: — Baseline date for defining the majority territory of Alberta.
- Resolution deadline: — Market deadline at 11:59 PM ET for the announcement or sovereignty transfer.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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