Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?
Current price
4.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$295.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify what does and does not constitute release from custody, explicitly noting that house arrest, parole, or bond qualify for positive resolution, whereas prison transfers, medical visits in custody, or temporary court appearances do not. Resolution relies primarily on official government or corrections statements, though fallback to a consensus of credible reporting introduces minor discretion if official confirmation is delayed or absent. The deadline is fixed to a specific time zone without unusual early-resolution traps.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by December 31, 2026, including release to house arrest, parole, or bond.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying releases include remaining under house arrest, or release on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in leaving state custody. Transfers to another custodial location—such as a different prison, court, or correctional hospital—do not qualify, nor do temporary outings while remaining under correctional custody (such as testifying in court or before Congress). The market resolves to No otherwise. Official information from government authorities or corrections departments serves as the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET for release to occur
Resolution source
Official information from government authorities or corrections departments, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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