Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?
Current price
40.95¢
+5.65¢ · 24h
Implied probability 40.95%
$35.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves to the first Minister of Defense appointed in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker ministers and requiring a Knesset confidence vote. A critical point of surprise is that any reshuffles or new defense ministers appointed before the next post-election government forms will not trigger resolution. Additionally, if the defense portfolio is split among successor positions, resolution defaults to alphabetical order of the appointees' full names rather than an analytical division of power. While official Israeli government announcements serve as the primary source, broad discretion is permitted through consensus reporting to determine portfolio equivalence.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Defense will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Defense” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Defense are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Defense assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether no qualifying individual assumes office as the Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections by February 28, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes ("No Next Minister by Feb 28") if no qualifying Minister of Defense assumes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No (or to the specific individual) if an individual first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To qualify, the ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence or subsequent confirmation vote; interim or caretaker ministers do not count. The position must be titled "Minister of Defense" or be a confirmed primary successor position. If multiple successor positions share primary responsibilities, the individual whose full name comes first alphabetically qualifies. The Government of Israel is the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution cutoff: — Cutoff time is 11:59 PM ET for a qualifying minister to assume office
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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