China coup attempt before 2027?
Current price
3.75¢
+0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.75%
$164.2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution depends on an open-ended consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official body, leaving the decider to evaluate media narratives. Because information regarding internal Chinese politics is heavily restricted, distinguishing between an actual coup attempt, an elite factional purge, and mere rumors presents major interpretative challenges. The rules specify that foiled plots or arrests without an active execution phase do not qualify, and state claims of a thwarted plot require independent media to explicitly characterize it as an attempted coup. Participants should also note the qualifying window begins on November 11, 2025, rather than covering all historical events prior to 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a coup attempt by state actors occurs in China between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a widely reported coup attempt occurs in China between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A coup attempt must be a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state actors, isolated protests, general unrest, and foiled plots lacking execution do not qualify. Chinese government claims of foiled attempts require confirmation by credible independent reporting. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Start date: — Beginning of the qualifying window for a coup attempt.
- End date: — End of the qualifying window at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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