Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
Current price
2.8¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.8%
$449.2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market hinges on whether a military offensive has the specific intention of establishing territorial control over South Korean territory, which can be difficult to distinguish from border skirmishes, artillery strikes, or limited incursions without formal declarations. Resolution relies on statements from any of several diverse bodies—including South Korea, North Korea, the UN, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council—with no established hierarchy between conflicting statements, as well as a general consensus of credible media reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether North Korea initiates a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of South Korean territory before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of South Korea by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if such an offensive does not occur by the specified deadline. The outcome will be determined by official confirmation from South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for North Korea to commence a military offensive against South Korea.
Resolution source
Official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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