France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify the legal threshold required for resolution: an official decree entering into effect under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify the legal threshold required for resolution: an official decree entering into effect under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955. The criteria explicitly list several adjacent or related emergency declarations that do not qualify, such as public health states of emergency, states of siege, Article 16 powers, Vigipirate levels, or natural disaster declarations. The resolution relies primarily on official publications in the Journal Officiel de la République française via legifrance.gouv.fr, with credible reporting as a secondary reference. The deadline and territorial scope (including overseas territories) are well-defined, leaving minimal ambiguity.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether France declares a legally binding state of emergency by December 31, 2026. Resolution is strictly limited to declarations under Law No. 55-385, excluding other emergency powers or public health emergencies.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 enters into effect anywhere in the French Republic, including overseas territories, between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Declarations of a public health state of emergency, state of siege, constitutional Article 16 powers, Vigipirate 'Urgence attentat' levels, natural disaster declarations, or prefectoral orders outside Law No. 55-385 do not count. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided using the Journal Officiel de la République française, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr), or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·