Tusk out by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Participants should be aware that the market can resolve to Yes immediately upon an announcement of resignation or removal, even if Donald Tusk remains in office past the deadline date.
Read the full assessment
Participants should be aware that the market can resolve to Yes immediately upon an announcement of resignation or removal, even if Donald Tusk remains in office past the deadline date. Additionally, broad subjective conditions such as being effectively removed or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling duties trigger a Yes outcome, which requires interpretation if duties are disputed. The resolution source relies on official government statements but permits falling back to a consensus of credible reporting without defining which outlets qualify.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- High
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Tusk ceases to be Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Tusk's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Tusk and the government of Poland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Tusk will cease to be Prime Minister of Poland by December 31, 2026. An announced resignation or removal triggers resolution immediately, even if the effective date occurs later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Tusk ceases to be Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland for any period between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date will immediately resolve the market to Yes, regardless of when it takes effect. Yes also triggers if he is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties during this timeframe. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided using official information from Donald Tusk and the Polish government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Donald Tusk and the government of Poland, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·