Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The definition of a qualifying event is clearly detailed, explicitly requiring an intentional non-combat nuclear detonation producing a chain reaction and excluding dirty bombs, accidents, and third-party actions.
Read the full assessment
The definition of a qualifying event is clearly detailed, explicitly requiring an intentional non-combat nuclear detonation producing a chain reaction and excluding dirty bombs, accidents, and third-party actions. However, the resolution relies entirely on a broad consensus of credible reporting without designating a specific monitoring agency, international body, or government authority. If an unacknowledged or ambiguous detonation occurs, determining whether media and expert reporting amounts to a clear consensus could require substantial subjective judgment.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▼ −0.25 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia conducts an intentional, non-combat nuclear weapon test by December 31, 2026. Unclaimed tests can qualify if credible reports attribute the nuclear detonation to Russia.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia conducts an intentional non-combat detonation of a device that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion, regardless of yield) by December 31, 2026, ET. Unclaimed tests qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the detonation to Russia. The market resolves to No if no such nuclear test occurs by the deadline. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (dirty bombs), and actions by third parties do not count toward resolution. Resolution is determined by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A broad consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·