Iran invades Kuwait by December 31?
Current price
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Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government or multinational registry, giving the decider significant latitude to interpret whether media accounts confirm that Iranian forces established territorial control. The rules introduce several strict criteria beyond a general invasion: ground forces must remain present for at least 48 hours, standoff air or missile strikes without boots on the ground do not qualify, and consensual operations or limited search and rescue missions are excluded. Additionally, if troops enter just before the deadline, the market allows a seven-day extension window to verify whether territorial control was achieved before resolving.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
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Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwait territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Iranian military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Kuwait for less than 48 hours will not qualify. Mere presence of Iranian military forces within Kuwait will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Kuwait. Only the entry of Iranian military forces into the territory of Kuwait must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Iranian military forces enter the territory of Kuwait by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. If, at the end of the seventh calendar day, no consensus of credible reporting indicates that the operation has established or did establish control over part of Kuwait, this market will resolve to "No." No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by a consensus of credible reporting. Hybrid or "grey zone" operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be acting under the direct control of the Iranian state and establish de facto control over territory. Search and rescue or hostage rescue operations, operations intended solely to capture specific individuals, operations solely intended to evacuate personnel or to extract or destroy equipment or infrastructure, and intelligence, reconnaissance, or surveillance operations, whether overt or covert, will not qualify unless clearly demonstrated by a consensus of credible reporting to have satisfied this market’s criteria for a “Yes” resolution. Operations conducted with the consent or at the invitation of the government of Kuwait and strikes by air, missile, drone, or naval forces unaccompanied by ground forces will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether Iranian military forces invade Kuwait and establish control over any portion of Kuwaiti territory by December 31. What makes it unusual is that the presence must last at least 48 hours to establish control, and resolution can be extended by up to 7 days if entry occurs before the deadline but territorial control is not yet confirmed.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by December 31 at 11:59 PM ET in an operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwaiti territory. Operations by unmarked personnel qualify if confirmed to be under direct Iranian state control and establishing de facto territory control. Operations lasting less than 48 hours on the ground, mere military presence without territorial control, consented operations, search and rescue, evacuation, intelligence missions, and strikes unaccompanied by ground forces do not qualify. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. If forces enter by the deadline but control is not yet verified, the market remains open for 7 additional calendar days; if control is still unconfirmed by the end of that period, it resolves to No. The market is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: Forces must enter Kuwait by December 31 at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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