UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting rather than official United Nations Security Council voting records or documentation repositories.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting rather than official United Nations Security Council voting records or documentation repositories. Market participants should note that determining whether a Security Council resolution sufficiently endorses, approves, implements, or incorporates the specific agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 memorandum may require subjective judgment if the resolution text does not explicitly cite the underlying pact by name, leaving resolution reliant on media interpretation.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
6%
chance▼ −2.85 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United Nations Security Council will formally adopt a resolution endorsing or implementing a final U.S.-Iran diplomatic deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026 agreement by the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The agreement qualifies as the final deal if it is identified as contemplated by the June 14, 2026 memorandum of understanding within the resolution text, official U.S. or Iranian communications, or a consensus of credible reporting. The market resolves to No if no such resolution is adopted by the deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·