Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?
Current price
5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5%
$29.9K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The title omits the specific year, whereas the text clarifies that the deadline is December 31, 2026. A key rule clause triggers immediate affirmative resolution upon an announcement of resignation or removal, even if the actual departure date falls well beyond the market's expiration or remains pending. Resolution relies on official Italian government statements or a consensus of credible reporting, leaving room for subjective interpretation regarding what constitutes an official resignation announcement or acceptable consensus.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market tracks whether Giorgia Meloni ceases to serve as Prime Minister of Italy before the end of 2026. A notable aspect is that an official announcement of her resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution, regardless of when it formally takes effect.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of her resignation or removal made before the market end date also resolves the market immediately to Yes, regardless of the effective date. The market resolves to No if she remains Prime Minister throughout this period without such an announcement. Resolution is determined by information from the government of Italy or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — End of the evaluation window at 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
The government of Italy, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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