US x China Military clash before 2027?
Current price
2.45¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.45%
$219.2K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official military or government record, leaving room for interpretation by the decider. The rules provide specific inclusions and exclusions—such as counting both coast guards and requiring intentional ship ramming to cause severe damage like a hull breach rather than minor dents—but borderline incidents, contested warning shots, or disputed skirmishes in international waters could create ambiguity over whether the threshold for direct military engagement was met.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether there will be a direct military clash between the armed forces of China and the United States before 2027, with specific criteria for what constitutes a qualifying encounter.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if a military encounter occurs between the military forces of China and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A military encounter is defined as any incident involving the use of force, such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other direct military engagement. Intentional ship ramming that causes significant damage, like a hole in the hull or sinking of a military ship, also qualifies. The China Coast Guard and United States Coast Guard are considered parts of their respective militaries. The market resolves No if no such military encounter takes place within the specified timeframe. Non-violent actions, warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, missile launches landing in territorial waters or passing through airspace, and minor ship damage from ramming do not qualify for a Yes resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market close date: — End of the period for a military encounter to qualify.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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