Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market has very clear resolution criteria requiring an official written notice from the Iranian government to the United Nations explicitly invoking Article X of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before the stated deadline.
Read the full assessment
The market has very clear resolution criteria requiring an official written notice from the Iranian government to the United Nations explicitly invoking Article X of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before the stated deadline. While the market relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single named official UN registry to verify the notification, a formal treaty withdrawal notice is a major geopolitical event with unmistakable documentation, making surprise outcomes unlikely.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
9%
chance▲ +3.15 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty under Article X before the end of 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·