EVENT · 6 OUTCOMES
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
+1 more outcomesView event →
Geopolitics markets
35 live Polymarket markets in 27 events- MedGotchaBIG MOVE · ▼ 22 PTS
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions78.5¢−1¢ 24hWHY IT MOVED · NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCENot enough evidence for a likely driver yet. - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →November 2 · Since Oct 17Range 5–19% - MedGotcha
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMWording11.5¢−3¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.5–14.5¢ - MedGotcha
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions7.5¢+1¢ 7d7 daysRange 5.5–12.5¢ - MedGotcha
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 4 MEDIUMResolverTimingWording+14.85¢−1.65¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.05–9¢ - MedGotcha
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverExceptions4.65¢+4.15¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.5–4.9¢ - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Change in points, 24hView event →October 21 · Since Oct 17Range 91–98% - LowGotcha
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks2.7¢−3.8¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.45–6.5¢ - MedGotcha
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverTimingWording1.5¢+0.1¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.55–1.8¢ - LowGotcha
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks1.55¢+0.7¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.45–1.65¢ - MedGotcha
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording0.25¢−0.35¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.25–1.05¢ - MedGotcha
Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMExceptionsResolver4.5¢−4¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.5–9.5¢ - HighGotcha
Iran leadership change by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions1.6¢+0.25¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.2–3.05¢ - MedGotcha
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions2.2¢−2.15¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.85–4.45¢ - MedGotcha
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverExceptions95.5¢+16¢ 7d7 daysRange 79.5–95.5¢ - MedGotcha
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 4 MEDIUMResolverTimingWording+19¢−5¢ 7d7 daysRange 5.5–14.5¢ - MedGotcha
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions1.1¢−0.35¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.45–1.45¢ - MedGotcha
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverWording5.15¢−18.8¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.35–25.35¢ - LowGotcha
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver3.85¢−3.65¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.8–7.5¢ - LowGotcha
Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver1.3¢−0.7¢ 7d7 daysRange 1–3.85¢ - MedGotcha
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverWording0.95¢−0.1¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.75–1.45¢ - MedGotcha
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMExceptions8¢+0.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 6.5–10¢ - LowGotcha
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks59¢−0.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 52.5–61¢ - MedGotcha
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 3 MEDIUMResolverTimingWording+11.25¢−2.1¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.25–3.35¢ - MedGotcha
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording2.85¢+2.2¢ since 00:56 UTCSince 00:56 UTCRange 0.65–4¢ - MedGotcha
Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptionsTiming+11¢+0.25¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.75–2.75¢