Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?
Current price
1.15¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.15%
$13K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government or international body declaration, leaving room for interpretation regarding what constitutes territorial control. The rules introduce complex qualifiers that go beyond a simple cross-border incursion: the forces must maintain ground presence for at least 48 hours, establish actual control over land, and avoid multiple excluded mission types like search and rescue, evacuation, or intelligence operations. Additionally, if troops enter just before the deadline, the market remains open for a seven-day extension window to confirm whether territorial control was achieved, meaning the final outcome may not be known immediately at the deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwait territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Iranian military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Kuwait for less than 48 hours will not qualify. Mere presence of Iranian military forces within Kuwait will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Kuwait. Only the entry of Iranian military forces into the territory of Kuwait must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Iranian military forces enter the territory of Kuwait by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. If, at the end of the seventh calendar day, no consensus of credible reporting indicates that the operation has established or did establish control over part of Kuwait, this market will resolve to "No." No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by a consensus of credible reporting. Hybrid or "grey zone" operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be acting under the direct control of the Iranian state and establish de facto control over territory. Search and rescue or hostage rescue operations, operations intended solely to capture specific individuals, operations solely intended to evacuate personnel or to extract or destroy equipment or infrastructure, and intelligence, reconnaissance, or surveillance operations, whether overt or covert, will not qualify unless clearly demonstrated by a consensus of credible reporting to have satisfied this market’s criteria for a “Yes” resolution. Operations conducted with the consent or at the invitation of the government of Kuwait and strikes by air, missile, drone, or naval forces unaccompanied by ground forces will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iranian military forces enter Kuwait and establish control over any portion of its territory by October 31, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution requires forces to remain on the ground for at least 48 hours and establish territorial control, rather than mere presence or brief incursions.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iranian military forces (including unmarked personnel directly controlled by the Iranian state in grey zone operations) enter Kuwait by the listed date at 11:59 PM ET in an operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwaiti territory. To qualify, ground forces must remain inside Kuwait for at least 48 hours. Merely being present, operations conducted with Kuwait's consent or invitation, standalone air/missile/drone/naval strikes without ground forces, and operations solely for search/rescue, hostage rescue, target capture, evacuation, extraction, destruction, or reconnaissance do not qualify unless established criteria are met. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. If forces enter by the deadline but control is not yet confirmed, the market stays open for 7 additional full calendar days; if control is still unconfirmed, it resolves to No. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Entry deadline: Iranian military forces must enter Kuwait by October 31 at 11:59 PM ET.
- Confirmation window extension: Market stays open 7 additional full calendar days if entry occurs by the deadline but control is not yet confirmed.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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