Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$300.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution hinges on assessing de facto governing authority rather than official constitutional office, titles, or international recognition, using qualitative indicators such as domestic control of the armed forces and executive ministries on December 31, 2026. Because resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting to evaluate who holds effective power rather than pointing to a designated official source, any contested succession or fractured leadership will require significant judgment by the resolving party. Additionally, the rules state the market can resolve to a special outcome if no single individual clearly exercises primary control at the deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Nasir Hosseini will be the de facto head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026. Resolution is based entirely on effective domestic governing authority and control over state apparatus rather than formal constitutional titles or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Nasir Hosseini de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, evidenced by control over the armed forces, state institutions, and core executive decisions regardless of formal titles. The market resolves No if Nasir Hosseini does not exercise primary governing authority at that time. If multiple individuals claim leadership, authority is evaluated based on demonstrable control within Iran's territory. If no individual exercises effective governing control, the market resolves to 'No Head of State'. Symbolic status, nomination without authority, or foreign recognition without domestic control do not count. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Evaluation timestamp: — Leadership status is evaluated on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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