Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$436.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market evaluates who holds de facto executive authority in Iran as of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, regardless of official constitutional titles or foreign recognition. The rules establish detailed criteria for measuring real governing authority, such as control over armed forces, state institutions, and core territory. However, resolution relies entirely on judging a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or formal appointment. In the event of a disputed transition or fragmented control, determining whether any individual meets the threshold for primary governing authority requires qualitative assessment by the decider.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Massoud Rajavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. Resolution depends on demonstrable domestic governing authority and operational control over state institutions rather than formal constitutional titles or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Massoud Rajavi exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions. Formal appointment or international recognition is not required. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without authority, or expired prior service do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual holds primary governing authority or if no individual exercises effective governing control at that time. A consensus of credible reporting serves as the deciding source.
Key dates
- Evaluation time: — Head of state status is assessed at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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