Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$474.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on who de facto exercises primary governing authority in Iran on December 31, 2026, explicitly disregarding official titles, constitutional roles, or foreign recognition. Because resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or formal appointment, the decider must interpret qualitative indicators such as military and administrative control. In the event of an opaque succession, internal power struggle, or fragmented leadership, determining who wields true de facto control involves significant subjective judgment.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Muhammad Mirbaqiri de facto holds and exercises the powers of head of state in Iran at the end of 2026, focusing on effective governing authority rather than formal constitutional titles or foreign recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Muhammad Mirbaqiri de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions regardless of formal titles or recognition. The market resolves to No if another individual holds this de facto authority or if no individual exercises effective governing control (resolving to No Head of State). Symbolic roles, unbacked foreign recognition, nominations without authority, or expired service do not qualify. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Evaluation snapshot: — The market evaluates who holds de facto head-of-state authority at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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