Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
0.2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.2%
$1.1M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on who de facto exercises primary governing authority in Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, explicitly disregarding official constitutional titles, formal appointments, or international recognition. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government register or designated institution. Determining whether someone meets qualitative criteria—such as effective control over security services, core executive decision-making, and state infrastructure—requires considerable subjective judgment if leadership is contested or undergoing transition.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will be the de facto head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. Resolution is unusual because it relies on actual, effective governing control and authority over state institutions rather than official titles, constitutional designations, or foreign recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, demonstrated by primary governing control over armed forces, ministries, and core decision-making. The market resolves No if another individual exercises this primary authority. The market resolves to No Head of State if no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, and expired prior service do not qualify. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Evaluation timestamp: — Assessed as of 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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