Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$425K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on evaluating de facto governing authority rather than formal constitutional titles or official appointments, focusing on effective control over the armed forces, executive ministries, and core infrastructure as of December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Because resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official registry or constitutional succession body, the market decider must exercise significant discretion to judge which individual holds primary control if a contested transition, power struggle, or ambiguity between the Supreme Leader and presidency arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Saeed Jalili will be the de facto head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. Resolution is unusual because it relies on effective, practical governing control over the state and armed forces rather than formal titles, constitutional designations, or foreign recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Saeed Jalili de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET by exercising primary governing authority, including control over armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions. Symbolic status, nomination without effective authority, foreign recognition without domestic control, or expired service do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual holds de facto authority, or if no individual exercises effective governing control, resolving to 'No Head of State'. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting assessing effective governing authority.
Key dates
- Evaluation time: — The specific timestamp at which de facto governing authority is assessed.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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