Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$239.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market hinges on whether the named individual de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The rules provide specific indicators for de facto authority, such as control over armed forces, ministries, and core infrastructure, disregarding formal titles or international recognition. However, the resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or designated authority, which grants considerable latitude to the resolver to judge who holds effective power, especially if leadership is fragmented or contested at the deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mustafa Hijri will be the de facto head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Resolution relies on demonstrable governing control and domestic authority rather than formal titles, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mustafa Hijri de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions, regardless of formal title or foreign recognition. The market resolves to No if another individual demonstrably exercises primary governing control in Iran at that time. The market resolves to 'No Head of State' if no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time. Symbolic status, nomination without authority, and foreign recognition without domestic control do not qualify. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority.
Key dates
- Evaluation time: — The market checks who holds de facto governing authority on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.