Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
0.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$785.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on de facto governing control rather than formal constitutional office or official titles, meaning the outcome depends on who actually controls the military, executive ministries, and capital on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. No specific official registry or government decree determines the outcome; instead, resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting to judge who held effective primary governing authority. In the event of political instability or fractured leadership, determining which individual exercised demonstrable control requires subjective interpretation by the resolving party.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ahmad Vahidi will serve as the de facto head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. The market specifically evaluates actual governing authority and domestic control over state apparatus rather than formal constitutional titles or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Ahmad Vahidi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. This requires exercising primary governing authority, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions, regardless of formal title or foreign recognition. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, and nominations lacking effective authority do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual holds this de facto authority. If no individual exercises effective governing control at that time, the market resolves to 'No Head of State'. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution evaluation point: — The exact time and date when de facto control of Iran's head of state is assessed.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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