Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
0.35¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$906.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution does not rely on an official government gazette, constitutional title, or international recognition, but instead on who de facto exercises primary governing authority over Iran at the precise timestamp of December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. While the rules list explicit indicators of control such as command of the armed forces and administration of state ministries, determining effective control during potential political instability is subjective. The market relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official registry or single authority, leaving room for interpretation if the political situation on the ground is contested or fragmented.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Maryam Rajavi serves as the head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. Resolution is unusual because it relies entirely on de facto domestic governing control and authority over state institutions and armed forces, rather than formal constitutional titles or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Maryam Rajavi de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, demonstrating effective control over the armed forces, executive institutions, and core state infrastructure regardless of formal title or foreign recognition. The market resolves No if another individual exercises primary governing authority, or if Maryam Rajavi possesses only symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, the market resolves to No Head of State. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Target evaluation time: — December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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