Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
0.4¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.4%
$838.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market relies entirely on determining de facto governing authority rather than formal constitutional office or official title. In a system like Iran, where power is divided between the Supreme Leader, the presidency, and various security councils, assessing who exercises effective control over armed forces and executive decision-making involves considerable qualitative judgment. Resolution does not use an official government gazette or legal roster, relying instead on a consensus of credible reporting to judge who truly holds power on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The rules also specify that lack of clear individual control would resolve to a null outcome rather than a named individual, which could impact binary settlement.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Abbas Araghchi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. Resolution depends on effective domestic governing authority and control over state institutions rather than formal titles or foreign recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Abbas Araghchi demonstrably exercises primary governing authority and control over the Iranian state on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, regardless of formal constitutional title or international recognition. The market resolves No if another individual holds de facto primary authority or if Araghchi only holds symbolic status without effective domestic control. The market resolves to No Head of State if no individual exercises effective governing control at the designated time. A consensus of credible reporting assessing effective governing authority serves as the deciding source.
Key dates
- Target evaluation time: — Assessment occurs on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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