Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$3.4M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution does not depend on official constitutional titles, formal appointments, or international recognition, but on who de facto exercises primary governing control and command over the armed forces and state institutions on December 31, 2026. In Iran's governance structure, distinguishing between the constitutional head of state, the head of government, and actual de facto control involves interpretation. Furthermore, no specific official registry or government proclamation is designated to make the call; the outcome relies entirely on deciders evaluating a consensus of credible reporting to determine who held effective control at the target timestamp.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mostafa Pourmohammadi is the de facto head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. Resolution depends on actual domestic governing authority and control over state institutions rather than formal titles, constitutional designations, or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Mostafa Pourmohammadi de facto holds and exercises the powers of head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET by exercising primary governing authority and control over the armed forces and state institutions, regardless of formal title or recognition. The market resolves No if another individual holds this de facto authority, or if Mostafa Pourmohammadi has only symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service. The market resolves to No Head of State if no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time. A consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority serves as the primary resolution source.
Key dates
- Evaluation time: — The market assesses de facto governing authority in Iran at this exact time.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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