Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$5.2M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
Resolution relies on identifying the de facto head of state rather than formal constitutional office or official titles, focusing on effective control over armed forces, state institutions, and executive decision-making. No official government source or institutional registry is designated; instead, resolution depends on determining what constitutes a consensus among credible media reports. In stable political scenarios this determination is straightforward, but in the event of political transitions, contested succession, or civil unrest, evaluating de facto control via media consensus introduces notable decider latitude.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mohammad Khatami will be the head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. Resolution is based on de facto governing authority and domestic control rather than formal constitutional titles or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Mohammad Khatami de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, meaning he exercises primary governing authority, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions regardless of formal title or recognition. The market resolves No if another individual holds this de facto authority or if Mohammad Khatami only has symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without authority, or expired prior service. The market resolves to No Head of State if no individual exercises effective governing control at that time. A consensus of credible reporting assessing effective governing authority serves as the resolution source.
Key dates
- Target evaluation time: — December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.