Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$324.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution does not depend on official constitutional appointments, formal titles, or foreign recognition, but instead on who de facto exercises primary governing authority and control over state institutions and the armed forces on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Because no official register or government body serves as the deciding authority, the market relies on an open-ended consensus of credible reporting. In the event of opaque political maneuvering, contested succession, or shared governance in Iran, judging who holds true de facto control will require substantial interpretation by the resolution source.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mohsen Araki will be the de facto head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026. The resolution focuses on actual domestic governing authority and control over the state rather than formal titles, constitutional designations, or foreign recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Mohsen Araki de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions regardless of formal title or international recognition. The market resolves No if another individual exercises this primary control or if Mohsen Araki only holds symbolic status, expired service, nomination without authority, or foreign recognition without domestic control. If multiple people claim the role, it resolves to whoever demonstrably exercises primary control inside Iran. If no individual exercises effective governing control at that time, the market resolves to No Head of State. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Target evaluation time: — Assessment time for who exercises de facto head of state authority in Iran.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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