Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$860.2K total volume · YES/NO
High gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules explicitly decouple the outcome from formal constitutional titles, official appointments, or diplomatic recognition, focusing instead on which individual de facto exercises primary governing control over Iran's armed forces and institutions. Because resolution relies entirely on an undefined consensus of credible reporting to evaluate qualitative indicators of power rather than an official roster or government decree, any fragmented or transitional political situation at the December 31, 2026 deadline leaves substantial room for subjective interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- High
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ali Motahari will serve as Iran's head of state at the end of 2026. The resolution is unusual because it relies entirely on de facto control and primary governing authority rather than formal constitutional titles, official appointment, or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Ali Motahari demonstrably exercises primary governing control and effective authority over the Iranian state, armed forces, and core national institutions on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The market resolves No if another individual holds de facto power at that time, or if no individual exercises effective governing control, which results in a resolution to No Head of State. Symbolic positions, nominations without effective authority, and foreign recognition without domestic control do not qualify. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting assessing effective governing authority.
Key dates
- Evaluation time: — December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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