Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
0.3¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.3%
$927.6K total volume · YES/NO
High gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market divorces the definition of head of state from constitutional title, official appointment, and international recognition, focusing instead on de facto exercise of primary governing authority and control over the armed forces and institutions. Because Iran's formal political structure separates the Supreme Leader, President, and other leadership bodies, evaluating who holds de facto supreme control in an ambiguous succession or power-sharing scenario requires subjective evaluation. Resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting to determine whether someone exercises effective control at the specified snapshot date and time, granting substantial latitude to the resolution decider in interpreting media consensus.
- Wording ambiguity
- High
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf is the de facto head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. Resolution is based on practical, effective domestic governing authority and control over the state and armed forces, rather than formal constitutional titles, appointments, or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, including effective control over the armed forces and core executive institutions. Symbolic roles, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without authority, and expired prior service do not qualify. The market resolves to No if another individual holds primary governing authority, or if no individual exercises effective governing control. A consensus of credible reporting will be the primary source to determine who exercises authority.
Key dates
- Resolution time: — Point in time at which de facto governing authority in Iran is assessed.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.