Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$259.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on evaluating who holds de facto governing authority rather than formal constitutional title or official state proclamation as of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Because resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single definitive official source, the outcome depends on deciders evaluating qualitative indicators like operational control over security forces, ministries, and national infrastructure. In scenarios involving contested authority, power fragmentation, or civil unrest, determining whether an individual meets the threshold for primary governing authority requires significant interpretive judgment.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Navid Shomali will be the de facto head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. The market uniquely bases resolution on effective domestic governing authority and control over national institutions and armed forces, rather than formal constitutional titles or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Navid Shomali de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, demonstrated by effective control over the armed forces, executive institutions, and core decision-making. Formal title or foreign recognition is not required. The market resolves to No if another individual holds this authority. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, and expired service do not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control, the market resolves to No Head of State. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Evaluation time: — The date and time when de facto governing authority over Iran is assessed.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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