Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
0.2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.2%
$1.5M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market relies on evaluating de facto governing authority rather than formal constitutional titles or official appointments. Resolution depends on an uncodified consensus of credible reporting to judge who exercises effective control over Iran's security forces, executive ministries, and capital on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Because formal appointment or international recognition is explicitly not required, any political transition, power struggle, or ambiguity over who holds real executive authority creates room for subjective interpretation by the resolving party.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Hassan Khomeini will be the de facto head of state of Iran at the end of 2026. Resolution is unusual because it relies on who exercises real, practical governing authority over state institutions and armed forces rather than formal constitutional titles, appointments, or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Hassan Khomeini de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority as head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. This requires effective control over armed forces, executive ministries, and core infrastructure regardless of formal appointment or international recognition. The market resolves No if another individual holds de facto governing authority, or if no individual exercises effective control. Symbolic status, nominations without effective power, and foreign recognition without domestic control do not qualify. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Evaluation time: — Point in time at which de facto authority is assessed.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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