Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Current price
0.35¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$1M total volume · YES/NO
High gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market carries significant risk of unexpected resolution because the rules explicitly define the head of state as whoever holds de facto primary governing control over Iran, including command of the armed forces and core decision-making, rather than formal constitutional title. Under Iran's constitution, the Supreme Leader, not the President, exercises primary authority and military command, meaning Pezeshkian remaining President would not automatically satisfy the rule criteria unless he also exercises supreme governing control. Additionally, resolution relies on an open-ended consensus of credible reporting to judge who holds effective power on December 31, 2026, rather than an official roster or government declaration, leaving final determination to subjective assessment.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Masoud Pezeshkian is the de facto head of state of Iran on December 31, 2026. Resolution is based on practical domestic governing power and control over core state institutions rather than formal constitutional titles or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Masoud Pezeshkian de facto holds and exercises primary governing authority over Iran on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions regardless of formal titles. The market resolves No if another individual holds this authority, or if no individual exercises effective governing control. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without authority, or expired prior service do not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting determines resolution.
Key dates
- Assessment time: — The market evaluates who exercises primary governing authority in Iran at this exact moment.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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