Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
13 live outcomes · highest priced: Anthropic at 49% (+1 pts in 24h) · first close Dec 31, 2026 · $2.6M total volume
About this event
This event tracks which company will own the top-ranked artificial intelligence model at the close of 2026. Each individual market measures whether a specific company's model occupies first place on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard.
How the outcomes relate
The event comprises multiple markets, each representing a single company candidate. Because the rules specify resolving based on the single company that occupies first place under the designated ranking and tiebreaking criteria, at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if the named company owns the AI model occupying first place on the specified leaderboard at the check time, and No otherwise. Rankings are checked on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard under the Rank section with style control off. Models are ordered primarily by leaderboard rank, followed by unrounded Arena score as a secondary tiebreaker, and finally alphabetical order of company names as a final tiebreaker. If the site is temporarily down, resolution waits until it is back online; if permanently unavailable, another source will be used.
Key dates
- Leaderboard check time: — December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 49% | ▲ 1 | Low | Med | |
| Meta | 2% | ▼ 1 | Low | High | |
| xAI | 2% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| DeepSeek | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Alibaba | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Z.ai | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Moonshot | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Mistral | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Microsoft | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Amazon | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Baidu | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| ByteDance | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Meituan | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| OpenAI | 5% | ▼ 2 | Low | Med | |
| — | — | Low | Med |