Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Current price
1.55¢
−1.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.55%
$188.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the exact metric, URL, sub-tab, and filter setting (style control off) to be checked on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Tie-breaking procedures are explicitly laid out in sequential order: official rank first, granular unrounded Arena score second, and alphabetical ordering of company names as the final tiebreaker. A reasonable contingency exists if the website is temporarily offline, keeping the market open until the leaderboard returns. The only minor ambiguity is an unspecified alternative source if the primary website becomes permanently defunct, but under standard operation, the resolution criteria are objective and fully defined.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Meta will own the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena text leaderboard at the end of December 2026. Resolution relies on specific leaderboard settings and includes multi-step tiebreaker rules involving granular scores and alphabetical company names.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Meta owns the model holding first place on the Chatbot Arena LLM text leaderboard with style control disabled at the check time. The market resolves No if another company owns the model in first place. Models are ordered primarily by leaderboard rank, then by exact unrounded Arena score if rank is tied, and lastly by alphabetical order of company names. The leaderboard check occurs on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET using the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard. If the website is temporarily offline, the market remains open and resolves upon the first check after it returns. If the website becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be used.
Key dates
- Leaderboard check time: — The Chatbot Arena LLM text leaderboard is evaluated to determine the top-ranked model.
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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