Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Last captured price
39.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 39.5%
$301.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly operationalize the subjective question by defining the top model via a specific, named public benchmark: the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard text rankings with style control disabled. The inspection time is set precisely to December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The rules also establish a detailed hierarchy for handling ties, falling back first to unrounded granular Arena scores and finally to alphabetical order of company names. Source discretion is minimal as the primary determination relies on a single published leaderboard table, with an alternate source invoked only if the primary website becomes permanently unavailable.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Google will own the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard at the end of December 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Google owns the model occupying first place on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard under the specified ranking rules. The market resolves No if a different company owns the top-ranked model. Ranking is determined primarily by leaderboard rank with style control off. Ties are broken first by granular, unrounded Arena score, and finally by alphabetical order of company names. Resolution is decided by checking the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. If the leaderboard is temporarily offline at check time, the market remains open until it is accessible; if permanently offline, another source will be used.
Key dates
- Leaderboard check time: — Leaderboard table is checked at 12:00 PM ET
Resolution source
Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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